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http://www.oregonnews.com/article/20061226/HOUSING/61226005/-1/NEWS

The houses on El Dorado Street in Roseburg are not worth a million dollars today.

A pair of professional assessors, however, once thought they might be by now.

One day in the mid-1970s, two Douglas County assessors discussed the potential value of newly constructed homes on El Dorado Street in Roseburg’s Hucrest neighborhood.

“We said in our lifetime, they’re going to be worth a million bucks,” said Ron Northcraft, current Douglas County assessor.

Then a private assessor, Northcraft said most of those homes were built in the early 1970s. Around 1973, he said, home values were appreciating 1 1/2 percent every month.

If that kind of growth had continued, those houses on El Dorado Street, which were valued at around $25,000 originally, would have reached $1 million within 25 years.

Of course, that didn’t happen. Those appreciation levels peaked around 1979. In the 1980s, home values increased at a much less drastic rate, as the overall economy also experienced a recession.

Currently, however, home values are again on a solid upswing.

Several homes on Lamont Avenue, also in Hucrest, showed nearly identical value growth since the 1970s. One of those homes, as an example, was built in 1966.

According to Douglas County Assessor’s Office records, it was constructed on a quarter-acre parcel of land that was appraised at $480 the previous year. When the house was built, it was valued at $20,502.

Thirteen years later, the value had nearly tripled to $59,000. Six years after that, its value had only increased by another $1,500 total.

Moderate growth in the 1980s bumped up big in the early 1990s. The Lamont Avenue home was valued at nearly $107,000 in 1995.

By the end of 2006, this house had more than doubled in value again, up to a real market value of $232,500.

Photo by MICHELLE ALAIMO/ N-R staff photo
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In the mid-1970s, two Douglas County assessors thought the houses on El Dorado Street in Roseburg would be worth a million dollars by now. Today they are in the $200,000-$300,000 range.
MICHELLE ALAIMO / N-R staff photo
SELLING THOSE HOMES

Around 250 fewer home sales closed locally this year, through November, than in 2005 during the same period of time.

During that same stretch, Douglas County saw 400 more new listings, according to RMLS Multiple Listing Service.

Listings were way up, but sales were down. Why?

News throughout the country all year stated that the housing market has been down.

Mortgage rates increased from the record lows in 2003 through 2005. Investment buyers were discouraged, and residents looking into a second home or moving up to a more expensive residence waited to see what happened with the market.

Jody Tatone, owner of Re/Max Professional Realty, said that with the record-low interest rates of a few years ago, “builders were building, subdividers were subdividing.”

The rise of that market ended abruptly enough this year that when those homes were finished, there weren’t as many buyers.

That does not mean, however, that the buyers are all gone.

“Price range is really what dictates the demand and it appears like if you can keep your listing under $300,000, you’re going to find a buyer for them,” Tatone said.

The amount people are paying for houses in Douglas County has gone up every year this decade.

The median sale price of homes in Douglas County for 2006 is currently $180,000, according to RMLS statistics.

That is $70,000 more than it was in 2000. It’s also a 10 percent increase over 2005.

With all the talk of the proverbial bubble bursting, it never actually happened, Tatone said.

“I don’t think it really busted, but I think the air leaked out a little bit.”

Douglas County, though, is different than much of the rest of the state, Tatone said.

Communities grow relative to the growth of their population, he said, which is usually because of an expanding job market or industrial base.

That hasn’t really happened in Douglas County, but the housing market grew anyway.

Since the population has been expanding only around 1 percent annually, Tatone said, housing expansion should follow at the same pace.

“We’ve far exceeded that the last couple of years,” he said of the housing expansion.

Tatone singles out investment buyers as a main reason for that. Buyers were purchasing real estate solely to sell it a short time later for a profit.

Those purchases have slowed considerably in 2006, Tatone said, but people are still buying locally to live locally.

Douglas County’s housing growth has had more to do with retirees than new industry, Tatone believes.

Retirees also help drive the market for higher-end homes.

While the median home price in Douglas County is under $200,000, there are homes worth in excess of $1 million, according to Melanie Shinn, executive vice president of the Umpqua Valley Home Builders Association.

“Part of that is because we do have retirees or folks moving up from California, where their home prices are so high, and they get a great land price here and build a really nice home,” she said.

Photo by ANDY BRONSON/ N-R staff photo
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Contractor Jason Tinker throws down electrical cable after finishing a day's work at the Four Seasons development on Rocky Ridge Drive in Roseburg. The homes, selling for just over $200,000, are in a price range that appeals to many Douglas County buyers, according to Roseburg real estate agent Jody Tatone.
ANDY BRONSON / N-R staff photo
UPSCALE & UP HILLS

Nine building permits have been issued for single-family houses valued at more than $300,000 in Roseburg’s city limits since 2005.

Only four such permits were issued between 2000 and 2005, out of 307 total permits authorized for single-family houses in the city, according to figures from Roseburg’s planning department.

Those figures account for the value of the home only. Prices for lots currently available in the city limits with access to city services range from $39,900 up to nearly $300,000. The low figure, according to RMLS, is for a lot around a half-acre in size. The highest dollar value is for a lot in excess of five acres.

Home builders are still focusing on midrange and first-time homebuyers as well, Shinn said. It’s just that the cost to reach those markets continues to increase.

Shinn said the demand is there, but there aren’t enough buildable lots within the city’s urban growth boundaries to meet it.

“Now we’re building up in the hillsides and those kind of things because we don’t have them,” she said of available lots for housing.

That immediately adds extra costs, because of engineering and excavation fees to get the houses built.

Lots at the new Winchester Ridge development are spacious, at two to five acres each, and are also going into a hillside. The lots range from around $150,000 to just under $290,000 in that development, according to Victoria Hawks, whose Hawks & Co. Realtors is selling lots at Winchester Ridge.

Hawks said there are currently 90 housing lots for sale throughout the Roseburg area, citing RMLS statistics. She said there is a mixture of prices on those lots, but “most” are in the $200,000 range.

Rob Lieberman, owner of Lieberman Construction Co. in Winchester, built homes for Rocky Ridge, a hillside Roseburg housing development started several years ago.

Lieberman currently has 19 employees, the most his 22-year-old business has employed at one time. He is developing higher-end homes for upscale developments including Winchester Ridge, Rose Village and Rocky Ridge.

“One of the things we’re counting on, and I feel optimistic about, is people will be moving into this area and looking for nicer homes,” Lieberman said.

Building for Rocky Ridge started Lieberman in the speculative housing market, building homes without buyers in place. He said that market had been growing locally, but has come to a near halt this year.

The hot real estate market of the last few years led to overbuilding locally, Lieberman said, especially on the speculative side.

That cooled, but Lieberman said interest hasn’t actually dropped dramatically.

For example, Lieberman has a spec home in Rose Village for sale. It’s been on the market for six months.

For 4 1/2 of those months, Lieberman has had two full-price offers on the home.

In both cases, the would-be buyers — one in Douglas County, the other in California — have to sell their homes before they can make the purchase.

Also in both cases, they haven’t been able to do that.

“I think when that starts picking up and people start selling their homes, things will definitely start coming alive here again,” he said.