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Statesman Journal

The Salem area and Oregon have escaped most of the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis that's driving up home foreclosures and rattling Wall Street.

But some see signs of trouble ahead.

"It's not a perfect storm, but you have a number of low-grade weather systems coming together," said David Tatman, the state's chief banking regulator and administrator of the state Division of Finance and Corporate Securities.

So-called subprime loans let people with weak or "subprime" credit buy or refinance their homes by paying higher fees and interest.

Often the loans start with a teaser interest rate that leaps higher after two or three years.

Oregonians have taken out fewer such loans than peers in 34 states, according to First American LoanPerformance. And Oregon had the nation's lowest level of foreclosed properties after the first quarter of 2007, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But by the end of the second quarter, Oregon registered the 27th-highest rate of foreclosures, reported by RealtyTrac Inc.

Oregon was slow to emerge from the last recession, slower to get into subprime loans and slower to see its real estate boom fade. It may just be slower to see problems from subprime lending, Tatman said.

Coming storm?

Angela Martin, who works on predatory lending issues for the progressive coalition Our Oregon, warns that Oregon faces a "tsunami" of foreclosures from adjustable-rate subprime loans over the next 18 months.

About 40,000 Oregon mortgages will reset to higher interest rates this year and next, Martin said. "For the average person holding a subprime loan, their average monthly payment is going to go up $406," he said.

A typical subprime loan payment could jump 25 percent, no easy task for borrowers with weak credit.

Salem's real estate market should cushion borrowers because it has been one of the nation's hottest, making it easier to refinance loans. But the subprime crisis that started in other states is reverberating nationally.

Since January, 2,372 loan originators stopped operating in Oregon, or nearly one-fifth of those arranging home loans, said Berri Leslie, mortgage lending program manager for the Division of Finance and Corporate Securities.

Foreclosures in the Medford area rose this year after home prices weakened, said Mike Leachman, policy analyst for the Silverton-based Oregon Center for Public Policy.

The North Carolina-based Center for Responsible Lending calculated that nearly one-fifth of the subprime loans taken out in the Salem area in 2006 will wind up in foreclosure. That would give the Salem area the 90th-highest foreclosure rate of the 378 largest metro areas for those 2006 loans. The Portland area is projected to have the 34th-highest.

Many other Oregon borrowers, stretching to afford a home, are resorting to interest-only or negative-amortization mortgages, where the borrower can choose not to pay the entire interest due each month and add it onto the loan principal.

Salem-area residents have quadrupled the use of both types of loans over the last four years, according to First American LoanPerformance.

Those loans could lead to more borrower problems, apart from subprime issues, Leachman warned.

"The average citizen shouldn't be relying on a negative-amortization loan," Tatman said. "All you're doing is falling further and further behind."

Industry turmoil

Oregon has witnessed some of the same lending practices that have resulted in a national wave of bankruptcies, lawsuits and foreclosures.

In tandem with the rise of subprime lending, citizen complaints about mortgage lending in Oregon quadrupled from 2002 to 2006, according to the state Department of Finance and Corporate Securities.

Salem resident Marci White complained that she wound up with a $1,500 monthly house payment despite reporting a monthly income of $2,166. White told regulators that the lender asked her to write a letter saying she expected monthly child support payments on top of her income, even though she'd only received one payment and her child support was four months in arrears.

Home lending practices have changed dramatically, partly because of Wall Street's voracious appetite to buy subprime loan portfolios that are bundled and resold.

Many lenders make their money on fees and quickly sell the loans, so they don't care about a borrower's ability to pay the loan when it resets to a higher interest rate, said Kevin Looper, executive director of Our Oregon.

Problem overblown?

Many mortgage lenders and industry analysts scoff at the notion of a crisis in Oregon because of its healthy real estate markets, low foreclosure rates and lower use of subprime loans.

"We're a different animal than what's taking place in Southern California and in Nevada and in Florida," said Tim Larson, the former vice president of Salem-based Silver Falls Mortgage and now a commercial loan officer for the company.

Salem's hot real estate market makes it easier to refinance loans, Larson said. And the mounting industry troubles are making lenders more amenable to renegotiate mortgages rather than resort to foreclosure, he said.

"The market was already starting to make the changes necessary to correct itself," Larson said. And he expects new federal regulations taking effect this month will provide the remaining needed fixes.

Sen. Rick Metsger, D-Welches, said if the lending industry hadn't opposed a subprime lending reform bill -- Senate Bill 965 -- in the 2007 legislative session, some looming problems would have been prevented.

Metsger, Our Oregon and others intend to propose a similar bill in the February special session.

slaw@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6615

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Daily Breeze




Whether the South Bay housing market has turned into a slumbering bear or a lumbering bull depends on how you look at the market.

The Multiple Listing Service of properties for sale shows more homes with reduced prices, and more cumulative days on the market.
SoCal Computer Recyclers

Monthly median home prices in the South Bay, however, are still ticking up overall.

According to the California Association of Realtors, the median price of a single-family home in the South Bay in July was $690,000, up 7.9 percent from July 2006; in the beach cities it was $1,035,250, up 5.4 percent; on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, it was $1,250,000, down 3.1 percent. Los Angeles County had a median price of $550,000, up 5percent.

So why are collective median prices in the South Bay and Los Angeles County mostly going up if an increasing number of list prices of individual homes are going down?

"More than half of cities in Los Angeles County actually have year-to-year declines," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for California Association of Realtors. "Higher-end markets are holding up better than lower end in terms of sales and prices.

"The higher-ends make up a larger share of sales distribution by price range, so that affects the calculation of median price," Kleinhenz said.

When looking at statewide sales data from Jan. 1 to July 31, 2007, versus the same period in 2006, declines become more pronounced. Homes below $500,000 saw a 24.3 percent decline in sales; homes priced $500,000 to $750,000 saw a 26.4 percent decline; and homes priced above $750,000, fell by just 5.4percent.

The median price of homes below $750,000 actually fell 1.9 percent statewide since Jan. 1. Median prices above $750,000 rose 2.2 percent.

Examples of reduced prices abound throughout the South Bay only two years after open houses routinely attracted multiple same-day bids. Sellers increasingly use such phrases as "Priced to sell!," "Seller very motivated!" and in one instance, "Desperate!"

"I see (situations) where nobody is buying a house," said Warren Snyder, co-owner and founder of Carriage Realty, American Broker Loans and American Credit Repair, all based in Torrance. "You now have houses for four and five months on the market, and you get one or two offers and they are 20 to 30 percent below price.

"Anyone out there buying a house is making offers that are absurdly low compared to what we had before," he said. "The sellers just aren't used to that. It will take a long time for sellers to adjust."

Snyder has sold real estate in the South Bay for 45 years, and believes he is witnessing the fourth housing downturn in his career.

"This one will be the worst we've ever had," Snyder said. "It will involve so much more of the economy than ever before. So many owners have turned homes into ATM machines. If you'd done loans 10 years ago the way they're done today, you would have been thrown in jail for fraud. So many people are in houses they can't afford. This will be a tremendous problem over the next 18 months."

Snyder said homebuyers are more intelligent and better informed as a result of the 2000s real estate boom and current mortgage industry mess. Buyers no longer will accept inflated prices on the most important purchase of their lives, he added.

"They're not going to buy a house that they think will be worth $200,000 less in a year," Snyder said. "They are going to wait for things to level off."

However, at Coldwell Banker offices on the Palos Verdes Peninsula and in Manhattan Beach, the market mantra might as well be: "Stairway to housing."

"Our circumstances here are different. The South Bay is a microcosm unto itself," said Shryl Lorino, manager of the Coldwell Banker office in Manhattan Beach. The office opened in June 2006 and has grown to 17 agents working in the beach cities and the wider South Bay.

The South Bay is "somewhat insulated," Lorino said. "There's so little coastal property left. The concept of supply and demand will come into play here. I don't have a crystal ball, but chances of there being a panic and real drastic change here are slim."

While Lorino describes business as brisk, she calls this market more normal in that buyers and sellers are taking their time and negotiating more often through offers and counteroffers. Some sellers participate in loan buydown programs, in which a seller, for example, pays for some points on a buyer's loan in order to make a deal.

"The market used to favor that impulsive, charismatic larger-than-life buyer that attracts that type of seller," Lorino said. "Now everyone is more analytical. Now there is time to mull things over to do your research and do your homework and not have prices so drastically bumped up with multiple offers."

Leveling off is hardly what real estate investor and multiple homeowner Kyle Kazan would use to describe circumstances throughout Southern California, including the pricier enclaves of the South Bay.

"I believe the death spiral is on, and it will deflate values in real estate," said Kazan, who owns Beach Front Real Estate Services in Long Beach. The company either owns or manages 2,000 apartment units in Los Angeles and Orange counties, and invests in properties in other states and foreign nations. His company's combined portfolio is worth more than $250 million.

"The crazy appreciation in real estate in the last few years is now in reverse," Kazan said. "None of the South Bay is as much of an island as people believe. We're all pretty well interconnected and tied together. The outlying areas get hit worst and first, and then the flu spreads to more densely populated areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties."

Kazan, who regularly analyzes real estate markets for a sophisticated group of co-investors, said the 2002-03 housing market was the point where it lost its discipline and became too frothy.

The perfect storm of rising foreclosures and defaults, increased short sales and housing auctions, higher interest rates and tightened lending standards, and a diminishing pool of eligible, yet pickier, homebuyers all are combining to force the market downward, Kazan said.

"There will be wonderful opportunities for people if they still have good credit, and a little cash," Kazan said. The housing market will take a few years to unwind, he said, but predicts 2009 will be an optimum year to buy homes.

"The banks will let the auctions happen, and let values reset," Kazan said. "Lenders are holding many homes on their balance sheets, and at some point will want to wipe the red ink off their books."

Kleinhenz, the economist, said many deals are falling out of escrow because of tighter lending standards and fewer mortgage options. "Buyers cannot consummate the deal, which means homes stay longer on the market, which triggers further price reductions," Kleinhenz said. "The credit crunch really hurt sales and prices as through system."

But so far, downward scenarios are not on the radar screen for Kevin Moen, branch manager for two Coldwell Banker offices in Palos Verdes Estates and in Rolling Hills Estates, with a combined 130 agents covering the Peninsula and wider South Bay region.

In the Palos Verdes Peninsula market, for example, year-to-year sales activity is up 26 percent, with inventory levels remaining constant, Moen said. He said the vulnerable real estate markets are those with a lot of new homes, first-time buyers and speculation.

"We're still seeing a lot of instances of multiple offers and high demand level," Moen said. "We're not seeing that desperation mode of a seller; we are obviously going to see an occasional foreclosure, but we're not seeing a flood of inventory and distress sales or people losing their jobs."

Moen said the real estate market of the 2005 peak year was "crazy" and "not healthy," and that the current return to normal is a good thing.

"If a property comes priced right, there are two or three potential buyers for that property," Moen said. "If it's above the (comparable sales), then it will sit on the market."

martin.romjue@dailybreeze.com

THE CHANGING MARKET

Some recent random data from the Multiple Listing Service used by South Bay real estate agents:

A townhome in Rancho Palos Verdes with partial, panoramic ocean views shows a price drop from $839,900 to $765,000 after more than 220 cumulative days on the market so far. Price cut: $74,900.

A single-family home in north Redondo Beach on the market for more than 165 days shows a price drop from $847,700 to $735,000. Price cut: $112,700.

A renovated townhome within one block of the oceanfront in south Redondo Beach shows a price drop from $855,000 to $799,000 with more than 220 days on the market. Price cut: $56,000.

A single-family home in the lower Hollywood Riviera section of Torrance has dropped in price from $850,000 to $775,000 after more than 70 days on the market. Price cut: $75,000.

And a single-family home in west Torrance has fallen from $749,900 to $678,900 after more than 58 days on the market. Price cut: $71,000.
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