CA VCS 11.29.07

Ventura County


Still stinging from the housing market's credit woes that have left some potential buyers unable to qualify for financing, Ventura County home sales plunged last month while the median price slid further.

The median sales price for existing single-family detached homes fell to $650,570, down 4.6 percent from $681,820 in September and 3.1 percent from $671,330 in October 2006, the California Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. The median is the midpoint, where half the homes sell for more and half for less.

Sales tumbled 52.6 percent compared with the same month a year ago, and fell 3.5 percent from September.

While there's been "a huge falloff in sales" during the past two years, the median price has held steady, said Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project.

"It seems the longer sales are weak, the more likely prices will weaken," Watkins said. "The most likely scenario — we continue to see weak sales and soft prices until developers' inventories are worked down."

Working harder helps

Despite the bleak results, some real estate professionals say they're surviving by working a lot harder.

Marcella Poitras, a Realtor with Century 21 Home Land Realtors in Oxnard, goes door-knocking for up to three hours every day to distribute 100 fliers.

"I work hard," she said. "I call it planting seeds."

While other Realtors have left the profession or taken part-time jobs, Poitras reports her sales have doubled compared with last year. She currently has eight listings and six properties in escrow that are expected to close by the end of the year.

Poitras credits her success to her determination and market conditions, namely the rise in foreclosures.

In October, there were 224,451 foreclosure filings nationwide, up 94 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac's U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, released today. The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

California had the second highest foreclosure rate, behind Nevada, reporting one foreclosure filing for every 258 households, or 50,401 total — triple the amount reported last year — according to the Irvine-based company. In Ventura County, there were 648 filings in October, up from 169 a year ago.

Even though the market might bottom out next year, it's still a "perfect time to buy" because interest rates are still low and there's enough inventory for buyers to be choosy, Poitras said.

"The market is saturated with foreclosures, and the buyers are finally ready to buy," Poitras said.

Investors are leading the pack, with first-time homebuyers starting to follow, she said.

Sales are steady for Hope Goss, a Realtor with Realty Executives in Ventura. For the year, she's averaged one to two deals a month, off about 35 percent from a year ago. Goss said she expects December will be the best month of the year, with four scheduled closings.

"There are plenty of buyers still sitting on the fence waiting for the perfect time," she said.

"The serious ones are making really good deals. That's the point — there are some really good deals to be had for those people who couldn't buy in the hot market a few years ago."

Holiday sellers committed

Potential buyers and sellers remaining in the market during the busy holiday season are committed, Hope said.

"You have to be pretty serious to put your house on the market, because the offers that are out there are not full-price offers," she said.

October sales at Simi Valley-based Troop Real Estate were off about 30 percent from last year, said Brian Troop, president of the company. He said he expects more of the same this month and next, though he anticipates a "fairly decent December."

There are now more than 200 homes in Ventura County that are priced at $417,000 or less, which meets the conforming loan limit, Troop said.

"We've seen more activity in the last 30 days than we've seen any month this year," he said. "A lot of buyers are writing offers. They're realizing this is probably the real estate trough."

Still, this has been a tough year.

Troop Real Estate is projecting $1.2 billion in sales this year, compared with $1.9 billion last year.

"Many of my agents are struggling a little bit, and they've had to take outside jobs," Troop said.

Conejo Valley prices steady

Sales are down throughout the county, but in some pockets, the median price has held steady.

Conejo Valley's median price was $777,778 in October, unchanged from the same period a year ago, according to the Conejo Valley Association of Realtors. But sales for the area totaled 68 last month, down from 116 a year ago.

In California, the median price fell 9.9 percent, from $552,020 in October 2006 to $497,110 last month.

"Financing issues have dogged entry-level buyers since early 2007, but they spilled over into the middle and upper-tier markets in the last few months," CAR President William E. Brown, said in a release.

"The decline in sales at the upper end of the market contributed to a significant decline in the statewide median price as even well-qualified borrowers had difficulty securing financing."

Meanwhile, the state's home sales decreased 40.2 percent in October compared with the year before.

The Los Angeles-based trade organization forecasts further weakness in sales over the next few months as the liquidity crisis plays out, Leslie Appleton-Young, CAR vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.

Nationwide, the median last month declined to $207,800, a 5.1 percent drop from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year price decline on record, the National Association of Realtors reported.

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